2025-26 NBA Season Predictions Revisited: Knicks Win & NBA Tank-a-thon 2026

Thoughts on the 2026 NBA Finals

First off, let’s look back on an amazing NBA Finals. The Spurs and the Knicks gave it their all through 5 games, but alas, the New York Knickerbockers (yes, Knicks is short for Knickerbockers) got their first championship since 1973, beating the Spurs in 5 games (and winning the title on the road).

Just like last year’s Pacers-Thunder Finals, this Finals was full of storylines in its own right, even though the winner was decided in five games. The trio of Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and De’Aaron Fox was a sight to behold, and even though they and the rest of the Spurs came up short in the championship, guys like Wemby and Castle have yet to hit their primes, so once they do, I see some deep playoff runs in the Spurs’ future.

Now, about the Knicks. Sure, the Spurs did a great job of powering through the Finals matchups…for the first half. Unfortunately for them, their playoff inexperience showed quite a bit during the Finals, as they lost some of their biggest leads (including a blown 29 point lead in game 4) late in the second half due to unfortunate mistakes on the Spurs’ part-like in the aforementioned game 4 when De’Aaron Fox tried to score a layup in the game’s final seconds but got blocked by OG Anunoby of the Knicks (he should’ve just tried to run out the clock that game, but that’s just my opinion). I mean, Wemby was lucky that he didn’t six flagrant foul postseason points, which would’ve caused him to miss crucial Finals matchups (he did come quite close to this in game 5).

I will say this though, Knicks, take a bow, you earned it. And also try to keep Jalen Brunson around for as long as you can, because even though he’s on the shorter end of NBA players (6’2″), nights like his 45-points in Game 5 show that even the small guys can excel (for context, Wemby is 7’4″).

Eastern Conference 2025-26 predictions revisited

Now, how did my Python regression model think the past season’s Eastern Conference was going to play out?

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. Boston Celtics	7. Miami Heat	11. Toronto Raptors
2. Cleveland Cavaliers	8. Orlando Magic	12. Brooklyn Nets
3. Milwaukee Bucks	9. Chicago Bulls	13. Washington Wizards
4. New York Knicks	10. Atlanta Hawks	14. Charlotte Hornets
5. Indiana Pacers		15. Detroit Pistons
6. Philadelphia 76ers

Since I also decided to add predictions from the brain of Michael himself, let’s see what he thought last season’s Eastern Conference was going to look like:

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. New York Knicks	7. Orlando Magic	11. Toronto Raptors
2. Cleveland Cavaliers	8. Milwaukee Bucks	12. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Boston Celtics	9. Atlanta Hawks	13. Brooklyn Nets
4. Detroit Pistons	10. Chicago Bulls	14. Charlotte Hornets
5. Miami Heat		15. Washington Wizards
6. Indiana Pacers

With both the model’s and my predictions revealed, let’s see how things actually played out for the 2025-26 Eastern Conference:

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. Detroit Pistons	7. Philadelphia 76ers (playoff)	11. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Boston Celtics	8. Orlando Magic (playoff)	12. Chicago Bulls
3. New York Knicks	9. Charlotte Hornets	13. Brooklyn Nets
4. Cleveland Cavaliers	10. Miami Heat	14. Indiana Pacers
5. Toronto Raptors		15. Washington Wizards
6. Atlanta Hawks

So, compared to the actual outcomes of the Eastern Conference, how accurate were my predictions and the model’s predictions:

Play-off teams (in top 6): 3/6 (model), 4/6 (me)
Play-in teams (7th-10th places): 2/4 (model), 1/4 (me)
Teams out of postseason picture (in bottom 5): 2/5 (model), 2/5 (me)
Teams with exact seeding regardless of finish: 1/15 (model), 2/15 (me)

By the way, the team that the model got the exact seeding for was the 8-seed Orlando Magic. The teams that I got the exact seeding for were the 13-seed Brooklyn Nets and 15-seed Washington Wizards (interesting I got two non-postseason teams’ seeding exactly right). As for the Eastern Conference playoff picture, both the model and I got 7 of the 15 teams in the right playoff positioning (meaning whether the team would make play-offs, play-ins, or neither regardless of seeding). Although I can proudly say that I did better than the model when it came to guessing who will make the play-offs (top 6).

Top 5 Eastern Conference takeaways

Even though the Miami Heat had another up-and-down season (despite improving to 43-39 this year) and yet another play-in appearance, I think the splashes they made in the offseason could make a big, big difference in their 2027 championship aspirations. Regardless if the Heat come out on top next season, GM Pat Riley certainly made some juicy swings during free agency with signings like Tim Hardaway Jr, Bobby Portis Jr and of course the superstar Heat fans were hoping to land…Giannis Antetokounmpo. I also think keeping Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, and of course, Mr. 83-point-game-on-a-Tuesday-in-March Bam Adebayo (that was certainly a bright spot in an up-and-down season). Now, whether Giannis is an improvement over whom he was traded for (Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr, and Kasparas Jakuconis) remains to be seen, as Giannis did have an injury-riddled year last season and turns 32 in December. Nonetheless, kudos to Pat Riley on what might be his last big superstar acquisition. Perhaps these big swings could, at last, get the Heat out of play-in limbo. Having a proven 4-time NBA champion with the Warriors dynasty in Klay Thompson certainly will make for some juicy storylines, even if Klay turns 37 this season.
Despite losing Jayson Tatum to an Achilles tear for the bulk of the season (which limited him to just 22 regular season games played), the Celtics still managed to pull off an impressive 56-26 record and a 2-seed in the East. Even without Tatum, the Celtics’ supporting players certainly compensated for his absence. Whether it’s Jaylen Brown’s (in what became his last season with the Celtics-more on that later) NBA-leading 736 field goals total this past season (that’s FIVE more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s field goal total this season), Derrick White’s stellar defensive work (98 blocked shots this season, for one), the Celtics’ league-lowest turnovers-per-game rate (just 12.37), or any of the other accomplishments by the Celtics, they certainly proved their resilience…in the regular season. As for the play-offs, well, Boston certainly pulled a 2016-Warriors-in-the-Finals and blew a 3-1 lead…to the 7-seed, play-in Philadelphia 76ers-which brings me to my next point.
Even though the Sixers got swept by the championship Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, they certainly made a splash in the offseason. Along with keeping VJ Edgecombe, Tyrese Maxey (two players who certainly have a bright future in the league), and of course Joel Embiid, the Sixers sent Paul George off to the Celtics in exchange for Jaylen Brown and also made the biggest splash of the NBA free agency period when they signed LeBron James (Sr, not Jr) to a 2-year, $8 million deal right before his age-42 season. I mean, with a starting five of Embiid/Maxey/Edgecombe/Brown/James, I think they could be a dark horse contender this season (and certainly give the champion Knicks a run for their money). I’m still shocked the Celtics were willing to let go of Jaylen Brown of all people and trade him for a 36-year-old Paul George, but such is the cost of the NBA’s second apron I guess.
Now, regarding the Wizards, who’ve managed to do the impossible in that they’ve managed TWO bottom-of-the-East seasons in a row and THREE seasons where they were in the bottom 2 of the East (2023-24 was slightly better for the Wizards as they finished as the 14-seed), at least the model, myself, and the actual outcome agreed on one thing-they wouldn’t even crack play-in this year (though the model was a bit more generous giving the Wizards a 13-seed spot). Needless to say, every cloud has their silver linings. The mid-season acquisitions of Trae Young and Anthony Davis certainly added a strong veteran foundation-even if Davis has yet to play a game in a Wizards uniform and Young having barely played at all after he was traded from the Hawks. Other bright spots in an abysmal Wizards season include Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George. Personally, I’m looking forward to seeing what 6’9″ #1 overall pick AJ Dybansta could bring to the table. With the slow-but-steady rebuild going on in Wizards world, what could this mean for their playoff hopes next season? I still think there’s a lot of work to do and doubt the Wizards will be some sort of dark horse playoff contender for next season (leave that to the Sixers to play dark horse, in my opinion). Could the Wizards possibly sneak into the play-in? It’s likely, but I think that may be their 2026-27 ceiling. At least the Wizards got the #1 overall 2026 NBA draft pick for their troubles and in turn, received the aforementioned AJ Dybansta (perhaps their small forward of the future)?
I know the Giannis-to-Miami trade was THE story of 2026 free agency, and I already discussed how I think Miami may fare, but let’s reflect on the team at the other end of the trade-the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks finished just below the Heat (11-seed to the Heat’s 10-seed) and unlike the Heat, fell out of the postseason picture entirely-at least the Heat made it to overtime of the first play-in game against the Hornets before yet another early Heat postseason exit. As for the Bucks, did the loss of stars like Damian Lilliard and Brook Lopez hurt? I think so, and I don’t think former longtime Pacers (and fresh off the 2025 Finals) starter Myles Turner had a stellar first year with the Bucks given his lackluster per-game-points and declining minutes played throughout the season. The Giannis drama wasn’t much help for the Bucks, especially with the Bucks keeping him at the midseason trade deadline and Giannis’s left knee hyperextension injury that led the Bucks to bench him for the last 15 games of the season (much to the frustration of Giannis). Now, will the former Heat foursome of Tyler Herro/Kel’el Ware/Jaime Jaquez Jr/Kasparas Jakuconis be an improvement over Giannis and Bobby Portis Jr. We’ll see, but these four former Heat stars are still in the primes of the careers (Herro is the oldest of the bunch at 26) and have put up solid numbers during their Heat days.

Western Conference 2025-26 predictions revisited

Now that we’ve reflected on this past season in the Eastern Conference, let’s shift our focus to the West!

How did my Python regression model think the Western Conference was going to play out?

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. Oklahoma City Thunder	7. Golden State Warriors	11. Houston Rockets
2. LA Clippers	8. Phoenix Suns	12. Utah Jazz
3. Denver Nuggets	9. Sacramento Kings	13. New Orleans Pelicans
4. Memphis Grizzlies	10. Dallas Mavericks	14. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Minnesota Timberwolves		15. San Antonio Spurs
6. LA Lakers

Now let’s see how I thought the 2025-26 Western Conference was going to play out:

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. Oklahoma City Thunder	7. Golden State Warriors	11. Dallas Mavericks
2. Houston Rockets	8. LA Clippers	12. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Minnesota Timberwolves	9. Sacramento Kings	13. Utah Jazz
4. Denver Nuggets	10. San Antonio Spurs	14. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Phoenix Suns		15. New Orleans Pelicans
6. LA Lakers

Last but not least, let’s see how the 2025-26 Western Conference actually played out:

Play-Offs	Play-Ins	Maybe Next Year
1. Oklahoma City Thunder	7. Phoenix Suns (playoff)	11. New Orleans Pelicans
2. San Antonio Spurs	8. Portland Trail Blazers (playoff)	12. Dallas Mavericks
3. Denver Nuggets	9. LA Clippers	13. Memphis Grizzlies
4. LA Lakers	10. Golden State Warriors	14. Sacramento Kings
5. Houston Rockets		15. Utah Jazz
6. Minnesota Timberwolves

Just as we discussed with my Eastern Conference predictions, let’s compare the model’s predictions, my predictions and the Western Conference’s actual outcomes:

Play-off teams (in top 6): 4/6 (model), 5/6 (me)
Play-in teams (7th-10th places): 2/4 (model), 2/4 (me)
Teams out of postseason picture (in bottom 5): 2/5 (model), 4/5 (me)
Teams with exact seeding regardless of finish: 2/15 (model), 1/15 (me)

When compared to my Eastern Conference predictions, my Western Conference predictions turned out much more accurate. In fact, I got 5/6 top-6 playoff teams along with 4/5 teams out of the post-season. The two seeds the model got right were the 1-seed Thunder and the 3-seed Nuggets (I just got the 1-seed Thunder).

Top 5 Western Conference takeaways

Let’s start with the defending champs heading into the season-the Oklahoma City Thunder. First of all, going 1-seed in the Western Conference for three years straight is no easy feat, so my kudos to OKC. What else to reflect on? 64-18 record, including the stellar 24-1 start (for their first 25 games). Sure, their win total did go down from their championship winning season (though many teams would kill for 64 or 68 wins), but they came back this season still stronger than ever. Keeping the championship-winning Big 3 of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams certainly helped, as did playoff sweeps of the Suns (First Round) and Lakers (Semifinals). Even though the Thunder’s luck ran out in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals against the San Antonio Spurs (key players like Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell missed the bulk of the Western Conference Finals due to injuries), the Thunder still had a stellar season nonetheless-even with 31 different regular season starting lineups.
Every year, there are always some NBA teams that are quite the enigma. They’re not competitive enough to make deep playoff runs, and yet, they choose to run it back with the same crew. Case in point-the New Orleans Pelicans. 26 wins, 11-seed, not even making the play-ins and what do they do? Re-sign their 38-year-old center DeAndre Jordan to a 1-year veteran minimum and…that’s pretty much it. You would think the Pelicans would be much, much more motivated to shake things up, but lo and behold, they’re likely running it back with most of the same crew (save for Kevon Looney who left for the Lakers)-and new former Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley. For what it’s worth, Zion Williamson (yes, he’s still with the Pelicans) puts up solid numbers when healthy-averaging at least 21 points per game. Will this be the year Zion (and the Pelicans) get their big break? It will make for a juicy regular season storyline.
Another team that could fall under the category of “not competitive enough to make deep playoff runs but they still run it back with most of the same crew” could definitely be the Golden State Warriors. Yes, the second half of the 2010s was their dynasty years (with four straight years of Warriors-Cavaliers Finals) and yes, the Warriors still have Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Coach Steve Kerr from the dynasty days. However, Steph and Draymond aren’t getting any younger (now 38 and 36, respectively) and neither are many key Warriors players-like 36-year-old Jimmy Butler or 40-year-old Al Horford. Now I know the Warriors were hoping to land LeBron (think of all the nationally televised games and juicy storylines we could’ve gotten) but alas, LeBron took his talents to the City of Brotherly Love. With that said, the Warriors, like the Pelicans, will be running it back with most of the same crew-plus their lottery pick of Yaxel Lendeborg-that stumbled to a 10-seed play-in spot last season. Hopefully Jimmy Butler returns from the knee injury that ended his season back in February, or it could be a long year for the Warriors. After all, Steph Curry and Draymond Green are in the twilights of their basketball careers, so I think one last championship run for these two would end their NBA careers on a high note. I mean, even if one last ring for Steph and Draymond isn’t in the cards, perhaps a reunion with some old dynasty favorites like Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney would be fun to watch just for old time’s sake.
One team that surprised me quite a bit last year was the LA Clippers. A rough 6-21 start, losing Bradley Beal for the season after getting just six games with him, and rather unceremoniously (and disrespectfully) sending Clippers legend Chris Paul home after a December road game, and a still-ongoing salary cap circumvention scandal involving Kawhi Leonard doesn’t seem like it would bode well for the Clippers. But then, a Christmas miracle came for the Clippers-they would turn their fortunes around and end up with a 22-24 record by the end of January. But wait, by the time the season is all said and done, the Clippers somehow managed to obtain a winning record of 42-40 and wind up with a 9-seed play-in spot. Granted, they lost to the 10-seed Warriors in the 9/10 play-in game, but boy this was likely the mid-season turnaround of the 2025-26 NBA season. Now, the Clippers did send Kawhi back to Toronto for Gradey Dick and Brandon Ingram…that is, IF this Kawhi scandal does get resolved (that trade is still on hold and Kawhi is still with the Clippers as of this writing). I personally like the Clippers’ midseason trade with the Cavaliers for Darius Garland (in exchange for James Harden) and hope the Clippers’ eventually get Ingram and Dick.
Let’s also explore the tanking adventures for the two bottom teams in the Western Conference-the Kings and Jazz. Both teams once again had rough years, but as to who might have the brighter future (and might look way better next year), I’d have to go with the Jazz. I mean, I can’t help but feel sorry for the Kings’ luck in recent years, as their former coach Mike Brown (2026 Knicks), and former stars Tyrese Haliburton (2025 Pacers) and De’Aaron Fox (2026 Spurs) have gone on to enjoy NBA Finals and playoff success with other teams. Losing Domantis Sabonis, Zach LaVine AND DeAndre Hunter to season-ending injuries last season didn’t help them either, and neither did waiving one of their few bright spots from this past season-DeMar DeRozan. However, I still think the Jazz will come out as the more improved of these two teams because A-some stellar moves in both midseason and offseason (ahem Jaren Jackson Jr) and B-the draft of Darryn Peterson at No.2 overall-although I do think Darryn Peterson needs some more time to find his footing, in which case Keyonte George should tide the Jazz over at point guard. I’d also be interested to find out if the Jazz will keep Kevin Love around for another year, even with the third-lowest minutes per game on the Jazz (16.8) and only playing less than half the games this season (37).

And Now For Some Reflections On NBA Tank-a-Thon 2026

Look, I know it seems like there’s always those teams that can’t help but tank as hard as they can in any given season. However, the tank-a-thon was definitely in force throughout the 2025-26 season (for this definition, we’ll look at teams that finished 27-55 or worse).

For those unaware, tanking in sports refers to teams who are putting in as little effort as possible to undergo a long roster rebuild, don’t feel like trying at the end of the season once they’re officially eliminated from playoff contention, or, and perhaps most importantly, want a high draft pick to hopefully be able to draft their next franchise star.

So, who managed to crack tank-a-thon 2026? Unsurprisingly, we’ve got the bottom 3 teams from both the East and West.

Brooklyn Nets (20-62)
Indiana Pacers (19-63)
Washington Wizards (17-65)
Memphis Grizzlies (25-27)
Sacramento Kings (22-60)
Utah Jazz (22-60)

Look, in all fairness to the Pacers, this season always seemed like it was going to be a down year given Tyrese Halibuton’s Achilles tear at the end of the 2025 NBA Finals. With him back, plus with their midseason acquisitions of Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown from the Clippers, I’ve got a good feeling that the Pacers will be back in playoff contention in no time.

Now as for the rest of the tankers, boy what a wash of a year they had. At least for the Wizards, Jazz and Grizzlies, things might finally start looking up for them after their miserable 2025-26 seasons, as they received the number 1, 2, and 3 picks, respectively in the 2026 NBA Draft, which turned into AJ Dybansta (Wizards), Darryn Peterson (Jazz) and Cam Boozer (Grizzlies). That’s certainly a bright spot for these three teams, especially after things like losing to Miami on Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game night (Wizards), getting a $500,000 NBA fine for sitting out healthy players in the name of the tank (Jazz, but Pacers got caught doing this too), and struggling to find a midseason trade partner for Ja Morant (Grizzlies) before ultimately trading him to the Portland Trail Blazers.

As for the Nets and Kings, well, the Kings were just terrible this year. Certainly losing Domantis Sabonis and Keegan Murray for large parts of the season due to injury didn’t help (Sabonis only played 19 games and Murray just 23). As much as the rest of the Kings tried to make things work with guys like DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook, nothing really clicked amongst the Kings-also, what a disappointing way for Russell Westbrook to end his NBA career. Sadly, the Kings are still stuck with expensive contracts for Sabonis and Zack LaVine. The Nets, on the other hand, seem to want to “trust the process” (sound familiar Sixers fans?) and are in it for the long multi-year rebuild haul. Rookie Egor Demin was a bright spot for the Nets-even with a seemingly lackluster 28.5% 3-point shooting efficiency rate (Demin was eventually sidelined for the rest of the season in February with plantar fasciitis).

Now, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has some juicy ideas to mitigate the issue of tanking, some of which include (and it’ll be interesting to see some of these ideas in execution):

Silver’s new 3-2-1 system, where the three worst teams (Pacers, Nets, Wizards last season) will get a LOWER chance of getting the top 3 draft picks than the teams that finished 4th-10th record wise. Will this curb some teams’ tanking antics? We shall see.
If the NBA sees some overt tanking on a team’s part, they not only have the power to fine that team but also take away some of their draft lottery balls, which can further reduce their chances of getting a top pick. Yes, the NBA Draft uses lottery balls, much like a real lottery.
For what it’s worth, anti-tanking measures will be up for discussion once more in 2029 when it’s time to negotiate the new NBA Collective Bargaining agreement.

An update on the 2025 NBA gambling scandal

Last but not least, you might be wondering how the 2025 NBA gambling scandal that arose at the beginning of this season is playing out. Here are some quick updates:

The then-active coach Chauncey Billups and the then-active player Terry Rozier were both placed on leave by the NBA pending the outcome of their criminal proceedings. It’s safe to say at this point that Chauncey Billups’s coaching days are over, and he’s certainly unlikely to return to the Trail Blazers who have since hired former Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori as their new head coach. Terry Rozier was waived by the Heat at the end of the 2025-26 season, hasn’t signed with any other team since, and managed to get the Heat a compensatory second-round 2026 NBA Draft pick from the Hornets (Rozier’s game under investigation occurred while he was with the Hornets in 2023) which eventually got the Heat a rookie shooting guard in Ryan Conwell.
Damon Jones became the first defendant in the case to plead guilty. In his case, he pled guilty to two counts of wire fraud for his schemes to defraud major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel along with using his NBA connections to sell LeBron James’s injury insider information to bettors (Jones was working for the Lakers at the time).
Chauncey Billups’s federal trial is scheduled to start on November 2, 2026. Terry Rozier’s federal trial is set to start on February 8, 2027.
Two more former NBA players were arrested in connection to the scandal-Malik Beasley and Ed Davis. Much like Terry Rozier, Beasley also altered his performance while playing for the Bucks during a game in 2024 against the LA Clippers based off of prop bets for certain games he was playing in. Allegedly, Beasley’s motive was that he was struggling financially, due to gambling losses he accrued, relied on his former teammate Ed Davis for financial assistance, and used the money he won to pay off his debts to Davis.

Wow, what another wild NBA season. Coming up next-my predictions for the 2026-27 NBA season. After all the offseason shakeups this year, we’ll certainly see some juicy matchups with familiar faces in new places. Thanks for reading.

Michael